Fat Prophets > Australasian Equities
October 27, 2020 •

Building profits

Shares of James Hardie Industries have continued to advance year-to-date, extending the strong rebound after last March’s pandemic induced sell off and hitting fresh new highs. We view the rise as justified as the core US housing market continues to look robust and James Hardie has continued to pick up market share, with more likely to come.

Under CEO Jack Truong, the operational and financial performance has continued to impress, with cost-out manufacturing initiatives combined with strong sales boosting margins. New product initiatives should boost sales further in upcoming years.

Of the major sectors of the US economy, the housing sector has been one of the brightest spots and most resilient amid the pandemic, quickly recovering from the interruption last April. Record low interest rates along with a shift in housing preferences continue to be supportive. Now we have the jobs market staging a strong recovery and huge amounts of stimulus have been pumped into the economy. The rise in housing prices is a risk for new sales but supports the upgrading of existing homes, which also benefits James Hardie sales. There is a huge inventory of aged homes in the US alone.

Positively, for the prospects for a robust housing market over the next couple of years, unlike the previous housing boom, credit scores are high across the board this cycle, reducing risk. Finally, additional government support and possibly more from the central bank for the broader economy is likely on the horizon.

We continue to believe in the quality of the business and the long-term market opportunity for fibre-cement. James Hardie’s fibre-cement product should continue to win market share, with its niche outpacing the broader building materials market. James Hardie has cited fibre-cement’s advantages as being “ more durable than wood and engineered wood, looks and performs better than vinyl, and is more cost effective and quicker to build with than brick.” Positively, with its dominance in the niche, it has strong pricing power (leading to relatively high margins within the industry) and has exhibited this through past cycles.

The Fermacell acquisition has diversified the business and provides a growth platform in Europe, where previously James Hardie has had comparatively little traction.

Looking at recent macro data from the US housing market and sales of new single-family homes jumped 20.7% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.021 million in March, coming on the heels of an upwardly revised 846,000 in February and well above economists’ expectations for 886,000. It was the highest reading since August 2006 and a strong rebound after cold weather chilled buying activity in February. There is limited inventory.


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.
Speculative
high

3Q21; gold production off for the quarter

Evolution Mining has released its March quarter 2021 activities update, revealing a weak operational performance for the quarter. Evolution reported lower headline gold production for the quarter, but silver and copper production rose. Operating costs came in on the high side for the March quarter. A fall in the gold price delivered lower cash flow numbers, but the balance sheet remained in good shape. Production guidance for 2021 remained unchanged, while Evolution expects to see costs improve over the remainder of 2021.

Gold production for the March quarter came in lower, with the following chart showing quarterly gold production:

Source: Evolution Mining

Production fell 2.5% year-on-year (yoy), to 161,316 ounces of gold, with four of five continuing mines in Cowal, Mt Carlton, Mungari and Mt Rawdon all contributing headwinds with lower production results. Ernst Henry ran against the trend, to report higher numbers. Overall, we consider the result was average, with 2021 guidance unchanged and the expected improvement to costs over the remainder of the year being the key positive influences.

Gold production, according to Evolution, is tracking 2021 guidance numbers with the forecast remaining unchanged in the range of 670,000 to 730,000 ounces of gold.

Evolution’s biggest producer in its Cowal mine, was a key contributor after reporting a fall in gold production for the quarter. The following chart shows quarterly gold production for the Cowal mine:

Source: Evolution Mining

Cowal printed a 14.4% fall yoy, to 51,823 ounces of gold. Driving the result was a fall in the milling gold grade while gold recoveries improved. Milling gold grades fell to 0.90 grams per tonne (g/t) gold from 1.15g/t from a year earlier, while gold recoveries improved to 83.5% from 81.1%. The mine operated as expected over the quarter.

Mt Carlton, Mungari and Mt Rawdon all reported yoy falls of 8.9%, 16.8% and 27.4%, to print gold production numbers of 12,117 ounces, 27,226 ounces and 11,930 ounces, respectively. These sites operated as expected for the March quarter and are expected to deliver their full year targets.


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.
Speculative
high

On track to hit the top end of 2021 guidance

Sandfire Resources has released its third quarter operational results, reporting a fall in its headline production numbers for the quarter and a rise in costs. Production guidance for 2021 was maintained, with Sandfire’s expectation of reporting toward the top-end of the range and it did provide an upgrade on cost guidance numbers for 2021. A snapshot of the balance sheet revealed no debt and a swag of cash. The following table is a summary of Sandfire’s March quarter operational results:

Source: Sandfire Resources

Overall, the March quarter result was, in our view and at best, a satisfactory one, with our view espoused on the positive changes to 2021 guidance numbers. Meanwhile Sandfire’s very strong balance sheet remains a key attraction.

The DeGrussa (Sandfire’s interest 70%) and Monty mines in Western Australia are Sandfire’s producing sites. As Members can see from the above table, copper production fell by 6.3% year-on-year (yoy), to 16,803 tonnes of copper. The following chart shows quarterly copper production:

Source: Sandfire Resources

A fall in the copper grade of milled ore to 4.6% copper compared to 5.0% from a year earlier was the key driver of the result. A partial offset was the reported rise in milled ore throughput by 3.4% yoy, to 395,671 tonnes on improved efficiencies. Both the DeGrussa and Monty mines deliver to the same processing plant.

Copper guidance for 2021 remained unchanged with a forecast in the range of 67,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes. A standout feature was Sandfire indicating that it expects copper production to come in toward the upper end of its 2021 guidance band. For 2020, Sandfire produced 72,238 tonnes of copper.


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.
Core
medium

A good package for the times

Amcor, the world’s biggest consumer packaging firm, recently reported solid numbers for its nine months update, surprising to the upside and lifting its EPS guidance range for the fiscal year. Amcor also increased its quarterly dividend a tad compared to a year ago and we like its considerable pricing power, with company generally able to pass on raw material cost increases to customers with only a modest delay. We believe this position it well for the inflationary environment we see on the horizon.

9M21 headline numbers – US$ unless otherwise noted

Amcor posted solid results for the nine months ended 31 March 2021. Net sales of $9,407 million were up 1% on a reported basis and by 2% on a comparable constant currency basis. The result was driven by 2% higher volumes with no material impact from price/mix.

Adjusted group EBIT increased 8% in reported terms and by 9% in constant currency terms to $1,144 million as the margin expanded 80 basis points to 12.2%. GAAP net income increased 58% to $684 million, equating to GAAP earnings per share of 43.8 cents, up 63%, with the latter given a helping hand by share repurchases. Amcor repurchased 26.7 million shares (1.7% of outstanding shares) during the nine months period for a total cost of $308 million. Amcor expects to complete its $350 million share buyback of ordinary shares and CDIs in fiscal 2021. Adjusted EPS came in at 51.5 cents, up 16% in comparable constant currency terms.

Source: Amcor

Of that EPS growth 7% was organic, while 6% came from incremental Bemis acquisition synergies, which have hit $55 million to date this fiscal year. Management noted progress continues to run ahead of initial expectations and remains on track to deliver $180 million of synergies by the end of FY22. The remaining 3% of EPS growth was from the share buyback.


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.
Speculative
high

1Q21; six now under one roof

Northern Star has reported its activities for the March 2021 quarter, and in doing so has brought together six operating mines, with Thunderbox, Carosue Dam and the Super Pit joining its stable of four mines. Northern Star has indicated that it remains on track to hit 2021 guidance.

Gold production for the March 2021 quarter came in at 366,000 ounces, with the following chart showing quarterly gold production:

Source: Northern Star

Due to the merger no comparatives will be made to earlier results and when made it will be on a like-for-like comparison. As Members can see from the above chart there was a significant uplift in overall gold production for the March 2021 quarter. It is this production uplift that we considered was a key feature of the merger for Saracen Shareholders and this is especially so in a rising gold price environment.  

Of the Saracen mines in the merger, Carosue Dam was the standout for the quarter, following the reporting of a 16.5% year-on-year (yoy) rise in gold production to 57,630 ounces. Driving the result were higher mill throughput and gold recoveries, with ore throughput up 47% yoy, to 858,175 tonnes, while gold recoveries jumped to 94% from 92% for a year earlier. The Jundee mine was the standout for the March 2021 quarter from Northern Stars stable following the reporting of a 16.63% yoy rise in gold production, to 63,648 ounces. Driving the result were higher mill throughput and gold recoveries, with ore throughput up 31% yoy, to 655,143 tonnes, while gold recoveries jumped to 91% from 89% for a year earlier. Management will, over the months ahead, become more familiar with the operations of the new mines and improve efficiencies and smooth the integration process.

Pro-forma guidance for 2021 is forecast to be in the range of 1.5 million to 1.7 million ounces of gold and remained unchanged. Despite integrating two operations into one, we believe the quality of Northern Stars assets and the experience of the management team are reflected in the unchanged 2021 guidance.

First time all-in sustaining costs (AISC) came in at A$1,598 an ounce for the March quarter, with quarterly AISC shown in the following chart:

Source: Northern Star


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.

Recovery firmly underway 

ANZ shares have staged a strong recovery since March 2020 lows and have continued to advance year-to-date. The solid rally continues to be justified in our view given the positive economic momentum of the economic recovery in Australia and the strength of the housing market. ANZ, like the other banks is benefiting from much ‘better than feared’ outcomes and made a substantial net provisions release in the first half ended March 2021. We expect there to be more to come going forward.

Although there was pressure on the ‘top line’ as the bank charged customers fewer fees, the underlying core result was solid and reflected the better outlook.

ANZ reported a 90% year-on-year increase in statutory profit to $2.94 billion, with a key driver being a net provision release of $491 million. Cash profit from continuing operations – the more closely followed metric – more than doubled to $2.99 billion and was up 28% on the 2H20 figure. The year ago period of course was marred by huge provisions to cover for potential losses against the impact from the coronavirus.

For ANZ, and the other big banks for that matter, COVID-19 has been less financially disruptive than expected and compared to the huge provisions built up on their books. ANZ’s profits were boosted by the $491 million reduction in the provision for bad loans, a stark contrast from the same period last year when this provision was increased by $1.7 billion. ANZ’s total reserve for bad loans remains at $4.3 billion in the event economic conditions deteriorate.

The improved outlook, along with capital generation on top of an already strong balance sheet, saw ANZ “able to return our dividend to a level more in line with our target and sustainable payout ratio.” ANZ raised its interim dividend to a fully franked 70 cents per share, exceeding market expectations for 63 cents.

Cash return on equity improved 206 basis points over the past six months to 9.7%.ANZ’s level 2 common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio strengthened by 110 basis points to 12.4%, well above APRA’s ‘unquestionably strong’ benchmark. The pro forma CET1 ratio was 12.5%.

Source: ANZ

There was pressure on the top line given the low interest rate environment and as ANZ charged customers fewer fees, especially compared to 2H20. ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott attributed the latter to Australia being a mature market.

ANZ is competing well and doing so in a sustainable manner in our view. The bank noted that process and system improvements have seen it move into third place in the Australian home lending market.

The bank added approximately 92,000 new home loan accounts in the Australia Retail & Commercial division over the past six months, with 42% of all retail sales, including home loans now through digital channels. ANZ will seek to continue to increase that percentage going forward as it looks to take costs out of the business in sustainable manner going forward. The division was the key contributor to the increase in group cash profits over the past six months as shown in the following graphic.

Source: ANZ

In the New Zealand business, ANZ added roughly 42,000 new home loan accounts over the past six months, representing strong high single-digit growth and maintaining its position as the leading lender in the market. It was the other strong contributor to the cash profit increase for the group by division. Notably, unlike Westpac, ANZ reaffirmed its commitment to the New Zealand market, which has been a strong historical contributor.

At the group level, ANZ reported a net interest margin of 1.63%, a 6 basis point improvement from 2H20 and a few basis points ahead of expectations, largely due to the benefit from the bank repricing deposits lower.

Source: ANZ


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.

Twenty years in the making

Global equities mostly advanced further in the first quarter of 2021, marking the fourth straight quarter. The gains came on the back an accelerating vaccine rollout, a strong outlook for a global economic rebound this year and continued accommodative measures from governments and central banks. Most of the pain was felt in the bond market, with yields rising on the rapid vaccine rollout in the US and UK and expectations of further US stimulus, which was forthcoming. Australian shares edged up in the first quarter and have since pushed higher to a new record high on Monday (yesterday), driven by the twin engines of banks and resources – more on that later.

US President Biden signed into a law a massive $1.9 trillion relief bill, keeping money flowing through the economy. Not to be left out, the European Parliament approved a €672.5 billion Recovery and Resilience Facility to provide grants and loans to help EU countries mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. In Australia, where the pandemic was contained much better than in most countries, stimulus is set to wind down in 2021 as the economy has rebounded strongly. Australian equities edged higher in the first quarter

Massive stimulus, significant pent-up savings and supply-chain disruptions though have combined to prompt inflationary fears around the globe. Although the most closely followed surveys in major economies have only shown inflation reaching modest levels to date purchasing manager indexes and commentary from a raft of companies implies we are on the cusp of a period of higher inflation. Whether this will be transitory as some suggest (with the Fed being a key player maintaining that view), or not remains to be seen.

Now in May, we have seen most companies around the world post better-than-expected first quarter results. In the US reporting season, Refinitiv estimates S&P500 first quarter earnings to date are up 50% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since the first quarter of 2010. Companies are bouncing back stronger than anticipated, not only in the US and but in many locales, including in Australia. Country and regional GDP forecasts have been revised upwards.

At the US Fed’s meeting in April, easy monetary policy was maintained, and the central bank signalled it isn’t in a rush to change that. Last Friday’s disappointing non-farm payrolls report dampened expectations of any hikes in interest rates sooner than the market was expecting. The US economy expanded at an annualized 6.4% pace in the first quarter of 2021 according to an advance estimate and that followed on the heels of 4.3% growth in 4Q20. The 1Q21 increase was the biggest first quarter growth rate since 1984. For the year, economists polled by Reuters estimate US growth could top 7% this year, which would also be the fastest since 1984 and follows on the heels of the 3.5% contraction in 2020, the worst performance in 74 years. This is important for the global economy and hence Australia and stock markets.


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.
Core
medium

Raising the stakes

Another week, another upwardly revised takeover bid for Mainstream. A week after global fund administrator Apex lifted its bid to $2.55 a share in cash, previous bidder SS&C Technologies exercised its matching right, and increased its offer, albeit very slightly, to $2.56 a share.

The dust had barely settled on the latest revised bid when Apex came straight back, offering $2.60 per share. Management at Mainstream have confirmed Apex as providing the superior proposal, and it is now the incumbent offer, SS&C now has till this Friday to match or offer more favourable terms than currently tabled by Apex.

Mainstream would be good fit for Apex which is Bermuda headquartered, with over $1 trillion in assets. Apex has a strong presence in Australia, having operated an investor service offering here for over a decade. The acquisition of Mainstream would be highly complementary, and boost scale from a local perspective.

But SS&C is no minnow either, with the Connecticut headquartered firm being a global provider of wealth management and fund services to more than 18,000 organisations.

SS&C clients include Australian superannuation funds, and a deal would have some fantastic synergies, and accelerate the company’s growth ambitions in Australia.  The fact that the majority of Mainstream’s business run on SS&C technology means it would be highly complementary. SS&C management will be well aware of the strong operational progress being made by Mainstream, particularly in the US, and will no doubt be eager to bring the group into the fold. SS&C has been on the acquisitions trail, and this would add to a series of material transactions made in recent times,

We believe there is a reasonable chance that SS&C will improve their offer before the end of the week.

After a ‘knockout’ bid from SS&C effectively blew the initial approach from Vistra out of the water, it now all feels t’s a bit like a house auction where the bidding slows down and goes up in small incremental increases.


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.
Core
medium

A bumper start

Agribusiness, Elders (ASX.ELD) has seen its shares continue to climb and virtually deflecting the headwinds caused by COVID-19. The fact that people still need to eat despite being holed up in their homes due to the pandemic has been a boon for Elders along with its peers but improving weather conditions and a bumper season gave the sector a solid boost. Today, we take a look at the latest round of results and update our view.

What’s new?

The last time we checked in on the agribusiness giant was back in November (FAT-AUS-996) where we saw the company report an solid performance at the end of fiscal 2020 unscathed from the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has been one of the most disruptive events in recent history with many businesses across sectors suffering, with agriculture seemingly one of the exceptions. This is evidenced by Elders sending the year with an impressive 29% surge in revenues and underlying earnings per share surging 35% year-on-year.

Since then, the company has issued another round of results which we review today to see how it has measured up since. Prior to that, we want to highlight some key expectations for the sector which was based on the March 2021 release of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences noting that they expect 2020-21 season to be the “second most profitable season ever for Australian farmers.” It seems that the drought that has affected the sector in recent history has subsided with better conditions and higher than average rainfall pushing expected cash incomes up 18% – and that’s for the average farmer.

With such a bullish outlook, we now take a look at Elders to see if it’s up to compete:

1H21 Results Overview

Starting from the top and revenues in 1H21 surged up 22% year-on-year to $1.1 billion, reflecting the improving conditions in Australia as well as management efforts to diversify the business model by geography, channel and product category – the diversification typically balances out the good with bad, however, this time all divisions benefited. We’re pleased to see that agriculture was one of the sectors showing to be largely resistant from the disruptive effects of COVID-19 with demand for agricultural products remaining strong (people still need to eat after all).


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.
Core
medium

Another Record Set!

Financial services platform, HUB24 (ASX.HUB) has done it again having broke another record with the latest quarter report highlighting an impressive run with Funds Under Administration making a massive year-on-year surge. Today, we take a look at how it has tracked since the last quarterly update as well as some key business deals.

What’s new?

At the end of March (FAT-AUS-1014), we covered some concerning developments for HUB24 as one of its rivals, Netwealth (and biggest listed player in the sector), are in negotiations with ANZ regarding its deposit arrangements which are set to be terminated in 12 months. There are expectations that the terms would shift from the 95 basis points above the T overnight cash rate to potentially lower (~40bps) levels – terms not as favourable for the sector and could pressure margins.

With that development, there could be the possibility that a similar development or worse for HUB24. At this point, however, there hasn’t been much in the way of news and we will continue to monitor developments as this does have a tremendous impact on the company’s topline.

Since then, there have been two key updates for HUB, the (i) first is the company issuing its third quarter (3Q21) report which we review below. The next one (ii) the deal with ClearView Wealth. The latter update has HUB24 completed the wrap platform development and bulk transition. This transition entails the transfer of $1.4 billion in Funds Under Administration (FUA) to HUB24’s private label solutions.

Last year, Clearview’s WealthSolutions2 white label for investor directed portfolio service and Super was launched onto HUB24’s network and has since reached 14 managed portfolios available to financial advisors. This is a key win for HUB24 and shows the strengths of its strategy from building up organic and acquisition-based approaches to grow FUA.

On that note, let’s see how management has expanded the group’s scale in the latest report:


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.

Fed up with the lockdown

With much of the world still in varying stages of their lockdowns, ‘stay at home’ stocks continue to do well. This includes many of the well branded ‘quick service restaurant’ operators, who are enjoying strong take-away and delivery demand as many people literally get ‘fed up’ with cooking. This has also provided a strong earnings offset in most cases to dine-in operations which largely remain shuttered.

This has certainly remained the case for our two key QSR exposures in the Fat Prophets Portfolio, in Collins Foods and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. Both have released positive trading updates over the past 10 days, including one from Collins out earlier today. This has continued a stellar rebound in the shares since March – Collins has rallied almost 75% since the March lows. Domino’s which didn’t see as much downside during the pandemic, is up around 27% since the March lows. The market has rightly recalibrated the fact that drive-thru/takeaway account for the lion’s share of turnover, and is thriving amidst the lockdown.

With talk of restrictions easing, can the upward share rerating process continue?

We believe it can, and expect the high quality QSR operators such as Collins and Domino’s however will likely continue their rollout plans, helped by the fact rents are set to fall given the likely closures of some more traditional retail outlets. The lower price point and ‘brand comfort’ of KFC and Domino’s will also come into their own if people look for cheaper ways to eat out and in.

Both companies will arguably talk up the Covid shutdown as a “unique opportunity” to grow and expand into the high street retail vacuum where “choice sites” are becoming available at attractive rents.

We retain buys on both Domino’s and Collins Foods cover off their most recent updates below:

Collins Foods has provided another Covid update earlier today, and it makes for very encouraging reading. The trading period covered is the last five weeks of FY20, being from Monday 30th March to Sunday 3rd May 2020.

Management reports that KFC Australia has continued to show improvements in sales trends. Same store sales (SSS) were down only marginally at -0.9% despite many Food Courts having been heavily affected due to the significant decline in shopping mall foot-traffic. Excluding the net effect of Food Courts, the remainder of the network (predominately drive-thru restaurants) traded positively, with +4.0% SSS growth over prior year. Increased drive-thru and home delivery sales more than offset any negative impact from the current Government ban on ‘dine-in.’


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.

In the nick of time

Nickel has not been spared from the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The measures taken globally by governments to combat the spread of the virus were blunt; halt person to person contact. Populations went into “lockdowns” as 2020 rolled out and economic activity went into a nose-dive. The following chart shows real global Gross Domestic Product (GPD) growth highlighted is the Global Financial Crisis:

Source: International Monetary Fund


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.
Speculative
high

An early peek

St Barbara has released an early update on its June quarter and 2020 full year operational results. The announcement revealed a rise in June quarter and 2020 gold production that came within guidance for the year, but toward the bottom end of the range. On the individual mine performances against 2020 guidance, one came in ahead, one within and one below. While a glimpse of the balance sheet to end June 2020 shows that it remains in good shape. The following table summarises St Barbara’s operational results:

Source: St Barbara


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.
Core
medium

2Q20; iron ore to the fore

Rio Tinto has reported its operational results for the second quarter to 30 June, and despite what has been a challenging, COVID-19 driven global environment, we consider the overall result as reasonable Rio Tinto’s key operational segment in iron ore was the standout for the quarter, as was bauxite and mid-stream alumina. Copper and aluminium were again thorns for the quarter, on lower production numbers, with a majority of Rio Tinto’s minor product offerings also reporting softer outcomes. Pleasingly, guidance for 2020 remained unchanged across all of Rio Tinto’s product offerings. The following table is a synopsis, by commodity, of Rio Tinto’s operational results for the June quarter:

Source: Rio Tinto


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.

A fist full of dollars

Since our March look at the iron ore market, the price has marched onward and is now trading around US$111 a tonne and up from the US$90 a tonne at the time of our last review. Over the past 12-months, iron ore has endured a US/China trade war and the ravages of COVID-19, with its beginnings in China, on the global economy and populace. We wrote at the time that “the iron ore price appears to be in a world of its own,” and this is especially so as China was a key participant in both, in many ways, damaging events. Our view has not changed since March, but certainly recent events and data reads have become tailwinds for the iron price. The following chart shows the 12-months iron ore price:

Source: Trading Economics


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.

Gold hits a new record

It was only a month ago that we upgraded our end of year price target for gold to a price range of US$1,925 to US$2,000 an ounce from our previous target range of US$1,625 to US$1,675 an ounce. The gold price at the time of writing in June was trading around US$1,780 an ounce. The gold price in recent trading hit a new record at circa US$1,970 an ounce to compress six months of price action into one month. The following chart shows the long-term US gold price:

Source: Trading Economics


DISCLAIMER
Fat Prophets has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites. Fat Prophets research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believed to be reliable and accurate at time of publication. However, like the markets, we are not perfect. This report is prepared for general information only, and as such, the specific needs, investment objectives or financial situation of any particular user have not been taken into consideration. Individuals should therefore discuss, with their financial planner or advisor, the merits of each recommendation for their own specific circumstances and realise that not all investments will be appropriate for all subscribers. To the extent permitted by law, Fat Prophets and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information within the report whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission. If the law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Fat Prophets hereby limits its liability, to the extent permitted by law, to the resupply of the said information or the cost of the said resupply. As at the date at the top of this page, Directors and/or associates of the Fat Prophets Group of Companies currently hold positions in: ASX-listed Australian stocks: AAC, AGO, AJA, ALG, AMC, ANZ, APA, APG, AVG, AWC, BCI, BHP, BKN, BOQ, BPT, BRL, BRU, BTR, BWP, CBA, CDD, CFE, CGL, CKF, CNQ, COL, CVO, CZL, DHG, DLS, DNX, DUE, ELD, ENV, EVN, FID, FMG, FPP, GJT, GMG, GOR, GPT, GXL, HUB, IAU, IFL, IGO, ILU, IMF, IPL, JHX, MAI, MFG, MGR, MHI, MML, MMS, MND, NAB, NCM, NEC, NECN, NMG, NUF, OBS, ORE, OSH, OVH, OZL, PAN, POS, PPS, PRG, PXG, QBE, RIO, RXL, RRS, S32, SAR, SDG, SFR, SGP, SHL, SLR, SPK, STO, SUN, SYD, TAM, TLS, TME, TPM, VOC, WBC, WFD, WES, WHC, WOW, WPL, WSA. International stocks: Activision Blizzard, Alibaba Group, Amadeus IT, Apple, Arcos Dorados, Bank of China, Barrick Gold, Baidu, BNP Paribas, BP, Caixabank, China Life Insurance, China Mobile, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Taiping, China Vanke, Cisco Systems, Citigroup, Coeur, Corning Inc., Country Garden, Credit Agricole, Credit Suisse, D.R. Horton, Dai-Ichi Life Holdings, Daikin Industries, Danone, Dr. Reddys Laboratories, ENAV, Euronext, Fanuc, FedEx, Fresnillo, Fukuoka Financial Group, Glanbia, Google (Alphabet), Heidelberg Cement, Heineken, ICICI Bank, Inpex Corporation, James Hardie, KONE Corp., Lennar Corp., LVMH, MGM China, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsui Fudosan, Mizuho Financial Group, Nintendo, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Nissha Printing Co., Nomura Holdings, Panasonic, PICC Property & Casualty, Powerhouse Energy, PPHE Hotel Group, Randgold Resources, Reliance Industries, Resona Holdings, Riverstone, Royal Dutch Shell, Sands China, Societe Generale, Sony Corporation, SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Square Enix, Sumitomo Chemical, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Tata Motors, TE Connectivity, Telepizza, Tencent, THK Co., Toyota Motor, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Volkswagen, Walt Disney, Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, XTD, Yaskawa Electric, Zillow. These may change without notice and should not be taken as recommendations.