Our job is to help readers navigate choppy markets with clear-cut calls, made in advance. Since 2000 we have made them on share markets, interest rates, currencies, commodities and individual stocks, and many went against the prevailing view at the time.
Each year since 2008 we have published our predictions for the year ahead, since 2022 as The Baker’s Dozen. Subscribers can see the past recommendations for each of our services, with their returns, in the members area.
This page sets out a selection of our calls, including some we got wrong.
Returns are for a hypothetical model portfolio, not the returns of any individual member. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
We published these calls ahead of the events. Open one to see what we said, what happened, and which note it came from.
We forecast that gold would rise above US$3,000 an ounce as central banks kept buying, and that silver would reach US$40 on industrial demand and short supply. Gold passed US$3,000 in March 2025, went through US$4,000 in October and ended the year at about US$4,310. That was a rise of 65% for the year, its biggest since 1979. Silver cleared US$40 in September 2025 and ended the year at about US$72, up 144%, also its biggest yearly rise since 1979.
Source: The Baker’s Dozen for 2025.
Our call for 2025 was a good year for share markets around the world, with markets outside the US catching up. The S&P 500 rose about 16% over the year. Japan’s Nikkei rose about 26% and passed 50,000 for the first time.
Source: The Baker’s Dozen for 2025.
We predicted that the Bank of Japan would scrap its negative interest rate policy in the first half of 2024, and that global investors would add to Japanese shares. The Bank of Japan ended negative rates in March 2024. The Nikkei rose about 19% over the year.
Source: The Baker’s Dozen for 2024.
With inflation higher in Australia than in most other countries, we expected the Reserve Bank to keep the cash rate elevated for longer and the economy to come close to recession. The Reserve Bank left the cash rate at 4.35% for the whole of 2024.
Source: The Baker’s Dozen for 2024.
We said the US dollar index would break below 100 during 2023. It began the year above 103 and fell to 99.6 in July.
Source: The Baker’s Dozen for 2023.
We argued that chronic underinvestment in energy, tight OPEC+ supply and the return of travel would push oil above US$110 a barrel. Oil rose above US$110 in March 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Source: The Baker’s Dozen for 2022.
We expected the US market to have a rare year of lagging the rest of the world, with a 15% correction along the way and leadership passing from technology and growth stocks to financials, materials and energy. The S&P 500 fell about 19% over the year and the Nasdaq about 33%.
We did not get all of it right. The same prediction had the S&P 500 finishing the year around 5,000. It finished at 3,840.
Source: The Baker’s Dozen for 2022.
In February 2021 Japan’s banks were among the cheapest in the world on price to book, after three decades of deflation, recessions and negative interest rates. We said rising bond yields would trigger a re-rating, and named Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group along with regional lenders Fukuoka Financial Group and Chiba Bank. The sector has re-rated strongly since, helped by Japan ending negative interest rates in 2024. As of late September 2026, we believe the re-rating has much further to go.
Source: fatWRAP, February 2021.
We forecast that US shares would rise about 10% in 2021, taking the S&P 500 to 4,000–4,100, on a V-shaped recovery and continued stimulus. The direction was right and the size of the move was understated. The index rose about 27% and finished the year at 4,766.
Source: Top Predictions for 2021.
We tipped emerging markets to do well in 2020, led by China, India and Korea. China’s CSI 300 rose about 27% and Korea’s KOSPI about 31%, against about 16% for the S&P 500. India’s Nifty 50 rose about 15%, slightly behind the US.
Source: Top Predictions for 2020.
We expected the US dollar to weaken as money moved back into riskier assets, a hard Brexit to be avoided, and the pound to recover. The US dollar index fell about 7% over the year and the pound rose about 4% against the dollar. The UK and the EU agreed a trade deal on 24 December 2020.
Source: Top Predictions for 2020.
After Chinese shares fell heavily in 2018, we said the market was priced for a worst case that would not arrive, and expected a rally of at least 20%. The CSI 300 rose about 36% over the year.
Source: Top Predictions for 2019.
We said the Bitcoin bubble would finally burst in 2018. Bitcoin fell about 74% over the year.
We did not get all of it right. We also expected one more surge before the fall, and it never came.
Source: Top Predictions for 2018.
Our 2017 call was for the S&P 500 to rise to 2,400 during the year and finish near record highs. It passed 2,400 in March and finished the year at 2,674, close to its record.
Not everything in that call was right. The same prediction expected a sell-off along the way that did not come.
Source: Top Predictions for 2017.
We published this call on 5 January 2016, ten months before the election, when Trump was one of a crowded field of Republican candidates. He won the nomination, and then the presidency in November 2016.
Source: Top 15 Predictions for 2016.
We called for Japan’s Nikkei to break through 20,000 in 2015. It first closed above 20,000 on 22 April 2015, at 20,134.
We did not get all of it right. The same prediction had the yen weakening to 130 against the US dollar. It got no further than 125.9.
Source: Top 15 Predictions for 2015.
We expected the European Central Bank to start full-scale quantitative easing, pushing European shares higher and the euro down to US$1.10. We also expected takeover activity to reach fever pitch and beat 2014.
The ECB announced its bond-buying programme on 22 January 2015. The euro fell below US$1.10 in early March, and Germany’s DAX reached a record high in April. Global mergers and acquisitions passed US$5 trillion for the first time.
We did not get all of it right. We had US$1.10 as the euro’s low, and it fell further, to about US$1.05. We expected energy, media and telecoms deals to lead, and healthcare and technology led instead.
Source: Top 15 Predictions for 2015.
A selection of calls from our first fifteen years.
We predicted the Shanghai Composite would rally hard and reach 3,200 by the end of 2014. It finished the year at 3,234, up about 53%.
Part of the same prediction missed. It had Japan’s Nikkei at 18,500 by year end. The Nikkei finished at 17,451.
Source: Top Ten Predictions for 2014.
We said Japan’s 20-year bear market was over, and expected the Nikkei to finish 2013 between 13,500 and 14,000. It finished at 16,291, up about 57%.
We did not get all of it right. The same prediction expected Japanese interest rates to begin rising, and they did not.
Source: Top Ten Themes for 2013.
We said banks globally should be avoided, as write-offs from the US housing market were set to accelerate. Sub-prime lending losses went on to bring down several banks and set off the global financial crisis.
When the invasion of Iraq led many to expect an oil glut, we took the opposite view on rising demand from China and loose monetary policy, and recommended quality energy producers.
After the dotcom crash, we expected Federal Reserve easing to weaken the US dollar and recommended buying gold at around US$262 an ounce.
In March 2000, six months before Fat Prophets was established, founder Angus Geddes called for investors to avoid internet and technology stocks, which he regarded as a classic bubble.
A selection of our stock recommendations, with the year we recommended each one as a Buy and the year of our most recent sale. Each return is taken from our past recommendations records and includes dividends. It is measured from our Buy price to the sale shown under the figure, which is our most recent sale with a published return. “Still covered” means we continue to cover the company. “Closed” means we have recommended selling all of the holding. Returns on our Australasian recommendations are listed in the stock returns table. Where we still cover a company, our current recommendation is available to members.
We added HUB24 to the Fat Prophets portfolio in November 2013 at $1.35, when it was a small, high-risk company. We have recommended selling part of the holding four times since, in 2015, 2022, 2024 and 2025, and have never recommended selling all of it.
When we recommended selling half in May 2025, the return on our Buy price was 6,033%, or 42.7% a year.
We continue to cover HUB24. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our HUB24 reports, 2013 to 2025.
We first recommended Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in 2006, when chipmakers were out of favour with investors, and rated it a Buy at around US$10.76 in January 2007. We recommended taking profits in stages as the shares rose, selling half in November 2013, October 2021, October 2022 and March 2025.
At the March 2025 sale, the return on our Buy price was 1,716.5%, or 17.4% a year.
We continue to cover TSMC. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our TSMC reports, 2006 to 2025.
We recommended Magellan Financial Group as a Buy in April 2012 at $1.74. We rated it one of the best listed fund managers, with its funds under management growing on the back of consistent investment performance.
We recommended taking some profits in 2012 at $2.20, and selling half in March 2013 at $7.26. When we recommended selling the rest in October 2018 at $25.82, the return on our Buy price was 1,623.6%, or 54.2% a year.
Source: our Magellan Financial Group reports, 2012 to 2018.
We added Google to the Fat Prophets portfolio as a Buy in July 2010 at around US$440 a share, before later share splits, on the strength of its search business and its move into mobile. We recommended selling half in October 2012, May 2022 and July 2024.
At the July 2024 sale, the return on our Buy price was 1,441.5%, or 21.4% a year.
We continue to cover Alphabet. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our Google and Alphabet reports, 2010 to 2024.
We recommended Gold Road as a Buy in March 2011 at $0.355, when it was still an explorer, on its potential to become a significant gold producer.
When we recommended selling half in May 2025, the return on our Buy price was 852.7%, or 17.2% a year. We recommended selling the rest in October 2025.
Source: our Gold Road reports, 2011 to 2025.
We added Apple to the Fat Prophets portfolio as a Buy in August 2016 at US$107.57 a share, before a later share split. Investors were worried about its reliance on the iPhone, and its price-earnings multiple had fallen. We saw value in its loyal customer base and its growing services business.
When we recommended selling half in July 2023, the return on our Buy price was 651.3%. At a second sale in March 2024 it was 550.5%, or 28% a year.
We continue to cover Apple. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our Apple reports, 2016 to 2024.
We recommended SRG Global as a Buy in July 2019 at $0.48, expecting more contract wins to support a re-rating of the shares.
When we recommended selling half in February 2026, the return on our Buy price was 540.6%, or 32.7% a year.
We continue to cover SRG Global. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our SRG Global reports, 2019 to 2026.
We recommended LVMH as a Buy in May 2012 at €122.25, despite weakness in Europe. Asia and the US were generating half its sales, and we expected it to gain as more consumers in emerging markets could afford luxury goods.
When we recommended selling half in October 2021, the return on our Buy price was 444.8%, or 19.8% a year.
We continue to cover LVMH. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our LVMH reports, 2012 to 2021.
We recommended Qantas as a Buy in August 2014 at $1.31, on its cost-cutting programme, changes to its ownership rules and the prospect of asset sales, and we called the easing of the domestic capacity war with Virgin “a key inflection point”. We recommended selling half in May 2016 and again in August 2018, and the remainder in October 2018. The return on our Buy price was 422.1% at the August 2018 sale, and 333.6%, or 41.6% a year, at the final sale in October 2018.
We recommended Qantas as a Buy again in August 2020 at $3.79, during the pandemic. When we recommended selling half in December 2024, the return on that holding was 138.3%.
We continue to cover Qantas. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our Qantas reports, 2014 to 2024.
We recommended Mitsubishi Corporation, one of Japan’s five big trading houses, as a Buy in July 2015 at ¥2,687, when its shares traded below book value and it was shifting towards businesses outside resources.
We recommended selling half in June 2023 and again in June 2024. At the June 2024 sale, the return on our Buy price was 316.9%, or 17.3% a year.
We continue to cover Mitsubishi Corporation. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our Mitsubishi Corporation reports, 2015 to 2024.
We added D.R. Horton, one of the largest US homebuilders, to the Fat Prophets portfolio as a Buy in March 2013 at around US$22.65, expecting it to benefit from a recovering US housing market.
When we recommended selling half in April 2022, the return on our Buy price was 231.3%, or 14.1% a year.
We continue to cover D.R. Horton. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our D.R. Horton reports, 2013 to 2022.
Fresnillo was the top gainer in the FTSE 100 in 2025. We recommended it as a Buy in July 2016, for its long-life silver mines and the potential in its exploration ground.
When we recommended selling half on 23 January 2026, the return on our Buy price was 124.7%, or 8.8% a year.
We continue to cover Fresnillo. Our current recommendation is available to members.
Source: our Fresnillo reports, 2016 to 2026.
We publish a review of the previous year’s predictions every January, including the ones that missed. Two examples.
We expected the US dollar to enter a long decline in 2024, with the dollar index falling well below 100 and losing 10% by year end. The dollar index rose about 7% over the year and finished above 108.
Source: The Baker’s Dozen for 2024.
Our view was that the S&P 500 would trade in a wide range through 2019 and not pass its September 2018 high of 2,930. The index rose about 29% and finished the year at a record 3,231.
Source: Top Predictions for 2019.
Our Australasian recommendations that we have sold or partly sold since 2006 are listed in one table, with the return on each and the report it was published in. The losses are in the same table as the gains.
Our Australasian Equities model portfolio is independently verified by PKF (NS) Audit & Assurance. See our performance record.
Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The calls on this page are a selection, not a complete record. Index and price movements quoted for our market calls are market outcomes, not the returns of any Fat Prophets recommendation or member. Stock returns are hypothetical. They are calculated from our recommended Buy price to our recommended sale price and include dividends. They do not allow for brokerage, tax or the timing of any member’s trades.
This information is for general information only and is not personal financial advice. Investors should consider their own circumstances and seek independent financial advice before making investment decisions. Read our full disclaimer. Fat Prophets Pty Ltd, ACN 094 448 549, AFS Licence 229183.
ASX- Listed Australian Stocks:
29M.AU, ANN.AU, ANZ.AU, BPT.AU, BWP.AU, CKF.AU, CBA.AU, EVN.AU, FID.AU, FMG.AU, GOR.AU, GMG.AU, GNC.AU, HUB.AU, ILU.AU, IGO.AU, JHX.AU, MGR.AU, NAB.AU, PAR.AU, QBE.AU, RRL.AU, S32.AU, SBM.AU, TLS.AU, TUA.AU, WES.AU, WBC.AU, WHC.AU, XRO.AUX, AGL.AX, AMC.AX, BHP.AX, CSL.AX, DMP.AX, GDG.AX, WIRE.AX, ATOM.AX, MQG.AX, NIC.AX, NST.AX, ORI.AX, PDN.AX, RMS.AX, RPL.AX, SFR.AX, STO.AX, SUN.AX, VAU.AX, WTC.AX, WDS.AX, GMD.AX, CSC.AX, RIO.AX, GTK.AX, SPK.AX & NEM.AX
International Stocks:
BIDU.CN, 9888.CN, 1211.CN, 268.CN, 3690.HK, 1818.HK, 9618.CN, ENX.FR, BT.A.GB, GENI.GB, FRES.GB, 9988.HK, 2282.HK, 700.HK, 1128.HK, 1876.HK, 8750, 7011.T, 8306.JP, 8031.T, 8411.T, 3994.T, 7974.T, 8604.JP, 8308, 6758.JP, 8316.JP, 8331.T, JP.8308, HEM.SE, GRAB.SG, BABA.K, GOOG.US, AAPL.US, CDE.US, CPNG.K, FLTRF.L, SIL, URA, BZ.O, MSFT.US, SBSW.K, 2840.HK, TME, GDX, GDXJ.US, YUMC.K, Z.O, IMPUY & ANGPY
