FAT-AUS-39828 Oct 08

Over recent weeks, extreme currency movements have been the main theme of financial markets. The currencies of the world’s two largest economies, the US dollar and the Japanese Yen, have been beacons of light. In just the last three months or so, every other major currency has declined sharply against the dollar and the yen.

Given the extent of Lihir Gold’s (LGL) recent share price falls, one could be forgiven for thinking that today’s third quarter production report would be a disaster. Although full year cost and production guidance has marginally weakened, the company in fact reported record gold production for the quarter.

The Australian dollar gold price is near record highs and gold miner Newcrest (NCM) just delivered record gold production of 486,000 ounces in the three months to 30 September. In response, Newcrest’s share price plummeted. The market continues to be driven by fear and liquidation rather than fundamentals.

National Australia Bank (NAB) reported earnings for the year to September 30 last week. Relative to the carnage we are seeing in the northern hemisphere banking sector, the results were quite good. However, despite the share price falls seen over the past 18 months, we are still not overly enthusiastic about the banking sector at this stage. Let us explain why.

Oil Search’s (OSH) recently disappointing stock price performance reflects both the ravages of the wider market and the considerable fall in the price of oil. . Lower oil prices will of course impact the company’s current earnings. Our investment case is, however, based on Oil Search’s Papua New Guinea (PNG) liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, the visibility of which is being overwhelmed by near term factors.

Story updated with White Mountain development.

Following our review of Macarthur Coal (MCC) in FAT397, this week we examine the company’s latest production report and consider the reasoning behind their currently depressed share price.